Fantasy Football League - 2011

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Fantasy Football League

DRAFTING AUGUST
2011

...and if you know how to play, it's FREE!!

Aaron Rodgers Over Drew Brees?

Chris Johnson Over Adrian Peterson?

Who is this year's Ray Rice?

Who Is This Years Miles Austin?

Roddy White vs. DeSean Jackson

Where to draft Randy Moss?

When is it time to draft WR-WR?

Do you prefer PPR Leagues or Not?

Who are the guys you are Targeting?

Who are your "sleepers" for 2011?

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WR-WR draft philosophy for a PPR League.

I think the thing most people should take from this is that there are optimal lines of play/drafting that should be taken @ specific draft locations in order to maximize the value of your team while makes those teams around you worse.

So far going WR-WR as early as 1.4 has been a phenominal strategy for me.

1) Your 1a & 1b WR should be better than every WR-WR combo you see on a weekly basis

2) You should have a shot at a stud QB in rounds 3 & 4 which means on avg., you have a better QB than 50% your league, sometimes 75%+.

3) You should draft a TON of RBs to make up for the lack of a RB1 selection in round 1 & 2. This doesn't mean you wont end up with a top10 down the stretch.

[Bastard Factory]

2010 SLeepers

Last year, WR Miles Austin, RB Rashard Mendenhall and RB Jamaal Charles burst onto the fantasy scene because they were simply given a chance on the field.

These are the players I will be collecting late.

QB's

Chad Henne, Dolphins

Matt Lienert, Cardinals

Kevin Kolb, Eagles

Matt Moore, Panthers

RB's

Ben Tate, Texans

Matt Forte, Bears

Justin Forsett, Seahawks

Felix Jones, Cowboys

James Davis, Browns

Aryan Foster, Texans

Ryan Mathews, Chargers

WR's

Malcom Floyd, Chargers

Devin Aromashodu, Bears

Hakeem Nicks, Giants

Early Doucet, Cardinals

Julian Edelman, Patriots

Jacoby Jones, Texans

Devin Thomas, Redskins

Laurent Robinson, Rams

Harry Douglas, Falcons

Matt Moore, QB, Panthers

Mohamed Massaquoi, Browns

Chaz Schilens, Raiders

TE's

Brandon Pettigrew, TE, DET

K's

lol

Defenses

Giants Defense and Special teams

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Who are you Targeting?

Here is how I have the first 2 rounds ranked in a PPR league.

1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Ray Rice
4. Andre Johnson
5. Maurice Jones-Drew
6. Larry Fitzgerald
7. Frank Gore
8. Michael Turner
9. Reggie Wayne
10. Calvin Johnson
11. Ryan Mathews
12. Randy Moss
-------------------------------
13. Steven Jackson
14. Sidney Rice
15. DeAngelo Williams
16. Roddy White
17. Brandon Marshall
18. Ricky Williams
19. Shonn Greene
20. DeSean Jackson
21. Anquan Boldin
22. Ryan Grant
23. Greg Jennings
24. Aaron Rodgers

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2010 First Round Bust Pick

Some years, we barely miss on a first round bust call…and invariably the guy bottoms-out the following year. We surely hope that happens this go around because for the first time in Draft Sharks history, we tabbed the same guy two years in a row. Sorry, that might seem like kissing your sister or putting re-treads on your brand new BMW – but our job is to warn you away from burning a first round pick on a player we think will tank. And that’s what we see in Rams RB Steven Jackson for 2010.

Part of the reason we went with Steve-Jax again was that he was a unanimous choice among our writers. He wasn’t everyone’s top choice, but he was a consensus pick among everyone – something that almost never happens. So on his 27th birthday, we give you the case that Steven Jackson will be a first round bust in 2010.

First, let’s take a peek back at 2009. His ADP last summer was in the neighborhood of 1.04 or 1.05 – and he churned out 1,424 yards, second only to CJ2K. But his fantasy value was hamstrung by a measly total of 4 TDs, which tied a career-low from his rookie season back in 2004. His year was salvaged by a stretch from Week 8 - Week 12 in which Jackson bruised his way to an average of 121 rushing yards and a TD in each of 4 consecutive games. When it was all said and done, Jackson was anywhere from the 7th- to the 14th-most valuable player in the league – depending on your scoring rules.

The story line for 2009 was this: Jackson was a stud player on a horrid offense (ranked 29th last season), and that dampened his production. The entire unit scored a league-low 16 TDs all season. That’s 2 fewer TDs than Adrian Peterson scored by himself. Thanks to an offense that didn’t spend much time near the opposition’s goal line, Steve Jax received only 32 red zone carries last season – just 18th among all RBs. And we don’t imagine things getting any better in 2010.

The Supporting Cast

St. Louis’ starting O-line is average at best. RT Adam Goldberg, the team’s best run blocker in 2009, looks to be on the outside looking in for a starting job this season. Goldberg started the second half of last season after prized 2nd overall pick Jason Smith was sidelined with a concussion in Week 7. Goldberg more or less carried the O-line when the injury bug struck much of the group down. While not a terrible run blocker, the jury is still out on Smith’s ability to carve holes from the OT position. The switch could end up hurting Steve Jax.
The Rams also lost their 2nd best run blocker, RG Richie Incognito, midseason last year. After committing two personal fouls and engaging in a verbal battle with HC Steve Spagnuolo, the Rams released him in December. In retrospect, it was a move the Rams probably had to make to avoid total team mutiny. Still, there’s no doubt that his departure hurts their run-blocking.
Stepping in for Incognito will be Hank Fraley. He spent the last 4 seasons in Cleveland, losing the starting C job to 23-year-old Alex Mack last year. He’ll turn 33 just as the season is getting underway and is definitely on the decline.
The wild card of wild cards on this line is none other than rookie OT Rodger Saffold, who projects to start the season at the RT position. While he’s shows a ton of promise, and excelled as a run blocker at Indiana, he doesn’t yet have the strength to match up against some of the more physical DEs at the NFL level.

There is no doubt that he’ll eventually add the necessary strength (and it could come as soon as next season), but he’ll struggle at times in his rookie campaign.

Between the turnover on the unit, plus the youth at both OT positions, it’s tough to see the Rams’ offensive line improving much in 2010. According to Pro Football Focus, they ranked 17th in run-blocking efficiency last year. We fully expect them to finish in the bottom half of the league again in 2010.

The Rams other skill position players don’t inspire much confidence either. They’ll start the year with either rookie QB Sam Bradford, or journeyman QB A.J. Feeley, a guy who hasn’t thrown a regular season pass since 2007, and owns a career QB rating of 69.6. Pick your poison. When one of those QBs throws the ball, they’ll be looking for a group of inexperienced and underwhelming (not to mention injury-prone) WRs. Donnie Avery, Laurent Robinson, Danny Amendola, Brandon Gibson and Mardy Gilyard. Not exactly a group that strikes fear into defensive coordinators.

And another reminder of how an anemic offense can cripple the fantasy value of a talented player. Of the 50 top-10 RBs over the past 5 seasons...

- only 3 have played on bottom-5 offenses (6%)
- only 6 have played on bottom-10 offenses (12%)
- a whopping 24 have played on top-10 offenses (48%)

Suffice it to say that Jackson will be a one-man gang on an offense that sucks. And though a lot of people love that he will get more than his share of carries, we think his workload could come back to haunt him.


Intangibles and Final Thoughts

By early October last year, the rumors were circulating that the Rams were going to ship their star RB elsewhere in exchange for draft picks. It’s likely those rumors were knocked down because St. Louis simply couldn’t afford the $5 million cap hit that would have come with the trade. But as we head into 2010, it begs the question of how well – or how hard – will Jackson continue to play for a team that is obviously in the midst of a 3- to 4-year rebuilding plan? Will he play through the pain like he did last year? Can he put the team on his back in yet another futile season? From stories we’ve heard about people who have had personal experiences with Jackson – he’s a head case, and even a bit of a punk. How long before that starts to show if the Rams roll up another double-digit loss season? We wouldn’t bet a first round pick on him staying tightly wired through the year.
His ADP has dropped a bit from 2009 -- he's currently being taken at 1.09. Still, there's no way we'd touch this ticking time bomb at that spot. You're better of grabbing a back like Rashard Mendenhall or Michael Turner there. And your best bet may be snagging one of the top WRs -- a Calvin Johnson or a Miles Austin -- and then adding Jamaal Charles in the 2nd-round as your RB1.
When you look at all of Jackson's red flags -- a horrible offense, his tremendous workload, injury history, and the fact that his team simply sucks -- he was an easy player to hate for 2010.


Honorable Mention:

Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts

Wayne has been one of the most consistent WRs over the past 6 years. He’s posted at least 75 grabs and 1,000 yards every season since 2004. Not to mention he’s played in 96 consecutive regular season games.
Not bad.

So why is he an honorable mention bust pick? Well before we get into that, let’s examine his current ADP.

Right now Wayne is going 9th overall in most drafts, coming off the board 2nd among WRs behind Andre Johnson. And that’s where a good chunk of our problem lies.

As evidenced by Wayne’s WR8 status in our rankings, there are several guys we like more than him. We’d rather roll with names like Calvin Johnson, Miles Austin, and Roddy White. For one, all of those guys have a 2nd round ADP. White’s even a guy you could possibly snag at the end of round 2.

They all have a higher ceiling than Wayne, too. While the 9-year vet is rock solid in his production, at 31-years-old (going on 32 in November) he doesn’t offer the upside that the others do. Yes, Randy Moss – roughly 2 years his elder – is above him in our rankings. But that takes into account various other factors that don’t favor Wayne (and do favor Moss). We’ll be discussing Wayne’s below.

First, let’s take a brief look at Wayne’s recent production. Over the last 3 years, he has finished 6th (’09), 14th (’08) and 4th (’07) in fantasy points in standard leagues. That’s a nice 3-year run. But is it a resume that makes him worthy of the 9th overall pick? We’re not so sure.

Let’s examine the statistical trends that lead us to believe Wayne won’t sniff the 100-1,264-10 line he posted in ‘09.

Over his 9 year career, Wayne has tallied double digit TDs 3 times: 2004, 2007, and 2009. But in the years following his big-time production, he flopped (by his standards) managing just 5 TDs in ’05 and 6 in ’08. We’ll see if the trend continues this season, but we have serious doubts about him reaching 10 scores again. With steady veteran Dallas Clark, and up-and-comers in Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie in the picture, it’ll be hard to repeat a 10-TD, or 1,200+ yard performance. Wayne might remain the #1 option in 2010, but it’s not a given. He saw just one more target per game than Clark did in ‘09. That could easily be reversed.

Wayne’s 12.6 yards per catch average is also a bit worrisome. It was his lowest career mark since 2003, and has been on the decline every year since 2006. The fact that Wayne caught just 1 ball of 40+ yards – also his lowest total since ’03 – certainly contributed to that. His speed wasn’t great to begin with, and it’s not coming back now as he nears his mid-30s. He won’t be beating many guys deep.


http://draftsharks.com/article/First...Bust_Pick_2010

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2010 Comeback Pick

Let me start with a confession.

We’re cheating a bit this year with our Comeback Pick because the guy wasn’t all that bad in 2009. He finished 10th at his position in standard-scoring leagues and was a mediocre starter for most of the year. But that was down from his 2008 ranking of 3rd, which left a sour taste in the collective mouth of Fantasy Nation. And that makes him a bounce-back candidate.

If you haven’t guessed by now, I’m talking about Jay Cutler.

The subject of all sorts of drama during the 2009 offseason, Cutler was finally shipped out of Denver and to Chicago last April.

From a real-life perspective, Cutler’s debut in the Windy City was a disaster. Besides his league-high 26 INTs – the most by any QB since 2005 – Cutler averaged a paltry 6.6 yards per attempt, recorded a career-low QB rating of 76.8, and led the Bears to a 7-9 record.

But from a fantasy point of view – and that’s what we really care about, right? – Cutler wasn’t half-bad. He managed to throw for 3,666 yards (13th in the NFL) and 27 TDs (8th). Toss in 173 yards and a score on the ground, and Cutler finished as the 10th-best fantasy QB in standard-scoring leagues – a low-end starter.

That doesn't mean he was a joy to own though. Cutler threw up a bunch of stinkers, including a 4-INT game in Week 1 and a 5-INT game in Week 10. In total, he posted 15 or less fantasy points in 6 games. That’s a real killer.
But he also hung a few gems. Cutler racked up 247 yards and 3 scores in Week 3 and then torched the Cardinals for 369 yards and 3 TDs in Week 9. And he finished out the ’09 campaign with back-to-back 4-TD games in Weeks 16 and 17. It’s those types of performances that have us believing that Cutler will really rebound in 2010.

Let’s not forget how talented this guy is. Selected with the 11th overall pick in the 2006 NFL Draft, Cutler is blessed with a cannon for an arm. And he’s a pretty heady QB too. Check out how he moves the defense with his eyes and then throws an absolute dart for this TD. Sure, all those INTs can be tough to swallow, but there’s a certain future Hall-of-Famer who wears the #4 and leads the universe with 317 career INTs. You take the good with the bad…

The point is this: talent isn’t a concern when you’re talking about Cutler. It really comes down to the system and the surrounding cast. And we think he has both in place for the 2010 season.

You don’t need to be a genius to figure out that Mike Martz can work magic with a passing game. In every stop “The Mad Scientist” has made as an offensive coordinator – St. Louis, Detroit, and San Francisco – he’s drastically improved the team’s aerial attack in his 1st season calling the shots. And the Bears hired him to do the same thing with Jay Cutler and Co. But to get an idea of just how much Martz can help.

Tough to argue with the numbers. In each city he’s graced, Martz has improved the team’s completion percentage, passing yards, and passing TDs – in many cases by a significant margin. And more importantly for us, the team’s fantasy output from the QB position has increased by anywhere from 41% to a whopping 103%.

Speaking of that 1999 Rams season, we almost have to write that off as an anomaly. The team went from 22nd in passing offense to 1st thanks to an increase of over 1,200 yards and 30 TDs! But it wasn’t just Martz who provided the spark. 1999 was QB Kurt Warner’s 1st season as the full-time starter. It was also WR Torry Holt’s rookie campaign. That’s a lot of variables that led to such an incredible turnaround.

It’s safe to say Cutler won’t be seeing his output increase by 103% this season. But a 40% increase – like we saw in Martz’s first seasons in Detroit and San Fran – is very doable. That’d give Cutler 320 fantasy points, which would make him a virtual lock to finish among the top-3 at his position.
From a talent perspective, Cutler blows the QBs Martz had on his last 2 teams out of the water. In Detroit, Martz was working with journeyman Jon Kitna – a hard-working, cerebral player. But a guy whose talent pales in comparison to Cutler’s. It was even worse in San Fran, where Martz’s offense was led by a combination of Shaun Hill and J.T. O’Sullivan
And the WRs on those teams? How does Mike Furrey, Corey Bradford, Bryant Johnson, and Jason Hill sound? Looking at that rag-tag groups of guys makes what Martz did with those passing games all the more impressive!
In Chicago, Martz will be working with his most talented offense since he left St. Louis. And from everything we’ve heard so far this offseason, he and Cutler are already on the same page.

Cutler is in love with the new offense. “The results of his offense speak for themselves,” he said. “I love it. The ball's in the air.”

And Martz is in love with Cutler. "I've got to smile because he has just been remarkable; he really has,” Martz said of his new QB. “He's so intelligent, he can intimidate you."

The two have a reason to be giddy. Cutler really is a perfect fit for Martz’s offense, which requires the arm strength to throw downfield and outside the numbers. The two have reportedly been spending a couple hours per day breaking down film so that Cutler understands the nuances of the offense before training camp opens.

While the Bears don’t have the skill position players that the 1999 Rams had, they do have plenty of firepower.

It starts with the RBs. Martz loves to get his backs involved in the passing game, and he has two good ones to utilize in Chicago. Matt Forte has already racked up 120 catches in 2 years of pro ball. While he doesn’t have the speed or agility of Marshall Faulk, who compiled 1,048 receiving yards under Martz in ’99, Forte runs tight routes and has ultra-reliable hands. Chalk him up for about 50 catches this season.

Also in the mix is free-agent RB acquisition Chester Taylor. Like Forte, Taylor is extremely adept at catching the ball out of the backfield. Although he’s spent virtually his entire career as a backup, Taylor has totaled 265 catches in 8 NFL seasons, and has four 40-catch campaigns on his resume. He’ll spell Forte and give the Bears another weapon in the passing game. With the Forte-Taylor tandem, Cutler will always have a pass-catching back at his disposal.

The WR corps is young and fast – just how Martz likes it. Devin Hester appears to be locked in as the team’s #1 wide-out. A converted CB, he’s still learning the intricacies of playing WR at the NFL level. Since moving over to the offensive side of the ball in 2007, Hester’s receptions and yards have climbed in each successive season. He set career-highs last year with 57 catches and 757 yards. His speed and jitterbug agility should play well in Martz’s offense.

Think of Hester as a souped-up version of Az-Zahir Hakim, who was a vital part of St. Louis’ offense at the turn of the decade.

2nd-year man Johnny Knox looks like the favorite for Chicago’s #2 WR spot. He was a pleasant surprise last year, posting 45 catches for 527 yards and 5 TDs in his rookie season. Like Hester, Knox is a bit undersized (6’0, 185 pounds) but has speed to burn. He ran a blazing 4.34 at the 2009 Combine – tops among all WRs. He’ll make plenty of big plays in this offense.

And then there’s the wild card – WR Devin Aromashodu. Drafted as a “project” in the 7th-round back in 2006, Aromashodu caught just 7 passes in his first 3 seasons. The Bears finally gave him some serious playing time down the stretch last year, and he responded with a sizzling 282 yards and 4 scores in 4 games. We’ll have to see if he can carry that over to the 2010 season. The Bears could really use his size (6’2, 201 pounds) in the red zone.

TE Greg Olsen is still hanging around, but we don’t expect him to contribute a whole lot this year. Martz has a history of ignoring his TEs. In fact, no TE in a Martz offense has ever topped 431 receiving yards. Still, we know Olsen is plenty capable of doing some serious damage in the passing game, so he’s another option for Cutler.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see this offense fail to produce a 1,000-yard receiver in 2010. But they could easily have 3-4 guys go for 750+ yards.
If there’s a concern for Cutler heading into 2010, it’s the offensive line. This unit was at the bottom of the barrel in most statistical categories last year. Cutler was sacked 35 times (7th-most in the NFL) and hurried 146 times (2nd-most). Pro Football Focus ranked the Bears offensive line 26th in pass-blocking efficiency.

But there’s hope for this coming season. In Week 13 last year, the Bears re-shuffled their offensive line, benching LT Orlando Pace, shifting Chris Williams from RT to LT, and plugging Kevin Shaffer into the hole at RT. The results were encouraging. Cutler was sacked 11 times in the season’s final 5 weeks. Not elite protection, but better.

We’re expecting even more improvement this year. With Orlando Pace gone, the fast-rising Chris Williams will stay at LT. Frank Omiyale, who played LG last year, will move to RT. He has experience at OT from his days in Carolina. Schaffer and Josh Beekman will duke it out for the LG spot in training camp. Roberto Garza and Olin Kreutz, two cagey veterans, return at RG and C, respectively.

The team also added TE Brandon Manuamleuna, a blocking specialist who has experience in Martz’s offense from their days together in St. Louis. Throw in new offensive line coach Mike Tice, and this unit should be quite a bit better in 2010.

That doesn’t mean Cutler’s jersey will be clean at the end of every game though. He’ll be dropping back 35-40 times per game in Martz’s offense, so it follows that he’s gonna take his licks. In fact, Martz offenses allow 47 sacks per year on average. That’s a scary-high number. But it has as much to do with the offensive lines Martz was working with as his offensive schemes. Only once did a team’s sacks allowed number increase when Martz came on board (the 2006 Lions went from 31 sacks to 63).

Cutler was sacked 35 times last year, and there’s no reason that number can’t go down in 2010. Plus, Cutler has proven to be extremely durable, currently holding a streak of 53 straight starts.

Listen – it’s no secret that Martz will do wonders for this passing game. And that has Cutler’s ADP at 7.10 as the 11th QB off the board. But that’s still some solid value for a guy with top-3 upside. And his floor is pretty high too – he finished 10th at his position in 2009 in a “down” year. It’s almost impossible to see Cutler finishing outside the top-10 this season, barring injury.

There’s no denying Cutler’s talent. He’ll make plenty of bad decisions that lead to INTs, but that gun-slinger attitude also leads to some brilliant throws. With an up-and-coming group of WRs and one of the best offensive minds in the game leading his passing attack, watch Cutler bounce-back in a big way in 2010.



Honorable Mentions:

Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions

From a pure statistical standpoint, Johnson is our real Comeback Pick. After finishing 21st among WRs last year, we have him ranked 3rd at his position in our 2010 projections. But we opted to go with Cutler as our Comeback Player because everybody seems to be back aboard the “Megatron Train.”

He’s the 5th WR flying off the board in average drafts, with an ADP of 2.02. Not much value there. But that doesn’t mean we don’t see Johnson having a huge year in 2010. Let’s start with the obvious – this guy is a physical freak of nature.

Standing 6’5 and 236 pounds, Johnson possesses 4.3 speed and a 43-inch vertical. CBs involuntarily cringe when they hear those specs. But C.J. doesn’t just rely on his imposing frame and ridiculous athleticism. He’s a smart WR who runs tight routes. And more importantly, he has sticky hands. Add all those things up and you get a QB’s dream – a guy with a huge catch radius who can create tons of additional yards after the reception. So how could a guy this talented finish outside the top-20 WRs last year? The first problem was injuries. Johnson missed 2 games and was limited in 2 more with a tweaked knee. But the bigger issue was the pieces around him.

Guys like Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt commanded absolutely no respect from opposing defenses. As a result, Johnson saw consistent double-teams and even a few triples. Even a physical monster like Johnson has trouble beating that. But the Lions made it a point to address that issue this offseason. They added a viable #2 WR in Nate Burleson, a prolific pass-catching TE in Tony Scheffler, and a home-run hitter in the backfield in Jahvid Best. It doesn’t mean C.J. will see single-coverage all day, but he shouldn’t have as much of the defense’s attention. And a healthy QB Matt Stafford should do wonders for his numbers too.

Stafford missed a total of 6 games in his rookie campaign. In those contests, Johnson averaged just 52.1 yards per game with 2 TDs. In the other 10 – with Stafford at the helm – Megatron tallied 81 yards per game with 3 scores.

Barring injury, look for these two to develop into one of the league’s most dangerous QB-WR duos. Johnson could approach his 2008 numbers – 1,331 yards and 12 TDs – this year, and he should finish squarely inside the top-5 WRs. And if things fall the right way – the Lions offense stays healthy, Matt Stafford continues to improve, Nate Burleson plays well as the #2 WR -- Johnson could be fantasy football’s #1 WR when all is said and done.


Greg Jennings, WR, Packers

Every season we put together a “20 Safest Players” article. It’s basically an in-depth run down of the guys that are sure things – well, as close to a sure thing as you can get in fantasy football. Discussing this list around the Draft Sharks office last summer, one of the first players that came to everyone’s mind was Greg Jennings. He was young, healthy, coming off of a great year, had a great QB, along with good enough weapons around him to mellow DB pressure but not take away targets. He was a shoe-in top-10 guy. After 16 weeks of highs and lows, it turned out that Jennings wasn’t as steady as we thought he’d be. We didn’t know why during the season, and to be honest, it’s still a little cloudy. His targets only decreased seven from the 2008 season. He still saw eight more targets than #2 WR Donald Driver – though significantly less than the 28 more he saw in 2008. So we’ve concluded that it was just a case of Jennings and QB Aaron Rodgers not being on the same page. For starters, only 57% of Rodgers attempts to Jennings found their mark, a number that’s too low for a guy that’s targeted 118 times. On top of that, Rodgers noticeably had trouble getting rid of the ball. He was sacked a league-high 50 times and pressured 135 times – also a league high. All that action in the pocket didn’t allow Rodgers the time to hit Jennings downfield – his bread and butter. Jennings has racked up 60 grabs of over 20 yards and 23 of over 40 yards over the last four seasons. But the line vastly improved down the stretch with the return of LT Mark Tauscher, allowing just 14 sacks in the final 8 games after giving up 37 in the first 8. And Jennings numbers followed suit. From Week 1 to Week 8, he was the 27th-best WR. But from Week 9 to Week 17, he advanced modestly to 18th. What’s not included in those numbers is his 8-130-1 stat line in the Packers Divisional Playoff matchup against the Cardinals. He looked as dominant as ever in that game, and that’s what we expect to see in 2010. We envision a return to the top-10 this year for a few reasons. As we said before, the offensive line is better, which will allow Rodgers the time to get the ball downfield. We’d even argue that it’s better than it was the last half of the 2009 season with a full recovery from Tauscher and the addition of rookie OT Bryan Bulaga for some more depth.

It’s also looking like veteran WR Donald Driver is close to ending his career after turning 35 and having not one, but two knee scopes this offseason. He’ll be replaced as the team’s 2nd receiving option by TE Jermichael Finley, who provides a big target down low, allowing Jennings more space over the top of the defense. And then there’s the fact that Jennings is just a really, really good WR. His 4.7% drop rate last year was best on the team. And his 16.4 yards per catch average was 6th best in the NFL among players with at least 40 catches. This offense is too good -- and Jennings is too talented -- to be held below 1,100 yards and 8 TDs this season.


http://draftsharks.com/article/2010_Comeback_Pick

[Bastard Factory]

2010 Breakout Pick

Fantasy football is pretty simple when you boil it down.

You’re looking for guys who are going to put up numbers. And to put up numbers, a guy needs two things: talent + opportunity. Without one or the other, you’re left with a frustrating fantasy player whose production is hit-or-miss. It takes that perfect blend of talent and opportunity to really create a breakout star.

Our 2010 Breakout Pick exhibited plenty of talent last year. But locked into a backup job, the opportunity just wasn’t there. The result was an inconsistent 2009 season.

But with RB Brian Westbrook gone, we believe Eagles RB LeSean McCoy is in for a big breakout season in 2010.

Drafted in the 2nd-round of the 2009 NFL Draft, McCoy had a pretty ho-hum rookie year. Playing behind Westbrook, “Shady” carried 14 times for 64 yards in his first 2 NFL games. Through the air, he tacked on 38 yards on 5 catches.

McCoy got his first pro start in Week 3 after Westbrook – unsurprisingly – went down with an injury. In that matchup against the Chiefs, McCoy popped 84 yards and a TD on 20 carries. He also added 1 catch for 9 yards.
The injury-prone Westbrook missed a total of 8 games last year, which gave McCoy significant action throughout the rest of the season. He wrapped up his rookie campaign with 155 carries for 637 yards plus an impressive 40 catches for 308 yards – a bigger workload than the Eagles had planned on giving him. But his 4.1 yards per carry average left something to be desired.
Heading into the 2010 season, we expect to see improvement across the board from McCoy as he takes over as Philly’s feature back.

Let’s first put to bed any ideas that RBs Mike Bell or Leonard Weaver will significantly eat into McCoy’s workload. Shortly after Westbrook’s release, HC Andy Reid said, quite bluntly, that “McCoy will take the ball from here.”
Just a while later, Reid compared the newly-signed Mike Bell’s potential workload to that of Correll Buckhalter’s earlier this decade. When Westbrook was healthy, C-Buck saw about 5-10 total touches per game. That’s the kind of action we expect Bell to see this season.

OC Marty Mornhinweg also sounds completely confident in McCoy’s ability to take over as the team’s lead back. "It's just 180 degrees different," Mornhinweg said about McCoy's transformation over the offseason. "He's very, very good right now. He's in shape. He's got a year under his belt. He's teaching the younger guys. I think he feels pretty comfortable, pretty confident right now within this offense, and all of the things he's learned over the past year."

In total, look for Bell and Weaver to siphon 10-12 touches from McCoy per game – not nearly enough to severely impact his fantasy value. In fact, that’s a pretty small number in today’s RB-by-committee world.

Understandably, there’s some concern about McCoy’s ability to handle a full workload. Despite touching the ball just 195 times last season, McCoy admitted that he wore down at the end of the year. “It was long. I was tired,” McCoy said. “Doing the same thing over and over and over, practice, running, probably beats you down more physically than mentally.”

And it showed. Over the season’s final 5 games, McCoy averaged just 3.4 yards per carry. That was way down from his 4.3 mark in the first 11 games of the year.

But it’s not uncommon for a rookie to run out of juice towards the end of the season. And McCoy has proved in the past that he’s capable of excelling with a big workload.

In his 2 seasons at the University of Pittsburgh, he totaled a whopping 584 carries and 65 catches in 25 games. That’s a massive workload of 26 touches per game – and McCoy didn’t miss a single contest with injury.

Although he’s a bit wiry at 5’10 and 208 pounds, this is a durable guy who can withstand the pounding of 250 touches per year at the NFL level. And that’s about what we expect him to get this season.

McCoy doesn’t have the benefit of playing in an old school ground-and-pound offense. Let’s be honest – when you think of Andy Reid, the first thing you think of is obesity. But the next thing you think of is a pass-happy offense. Since Reid took over as HC of the Eagles in 1999, his teams have ranked in the top-10 in pass attempts in 7 of 11 years. Only once during his tenure have the Eagles ranked in the top-10 in rush attempts.

But that doesn’t mean this offense is incapable of housing an elite fantasy RB. Under Reid, the Eagles have opted for quality over quantity when it comes to the ground game. While they don’t run a lot, they’re plenty effective when they do. Philadelphia has averaged over 4.3 yards per carry as a team in 4 of the past 6 years. And in 3 of those, they’ve ranked in the top-10 in yards per carry.

Reid also loves to get his RBs involved in the passing game. Brian Westbrook topped 60 catches in 4 straight years from 2004-2007. And he didn’t even play a full slate of 16 games in any of those seasons. And even before Westy burst onto the scene, RB Duce Staley was catching tons of passes in Reid’s offense. He racked up 63 and 51 receptions in 2001 and 2002, respectively.

Couple an efficient running game with a passing attack that consistently gets the RB involved, and you get an offense that produces some big fantasy numbers at the RB position. Here’s how the Eagles’ top RB has ranked in non-PPR and PPR formats during Reid’s tenure

This offense consistently churns out top-20 RBs – and even better in PPR formats. Granted, the majority of the top-10 seasons came from Westbrook, who was an absolutely perfect fit in this offense and will go down as one of the best pass-catching backs the NFL has ever seen.

But McCoy is pretty talented in his own right. This guy climbed draft boards leading to the 2009 draft thanks to an impressive Pro Day. His 40-time of 4.5 even was just mediocre. But he impressed scouts with his quickness, acceleration, and sticky hands.

And it’s those traits that make him a perfect fit in the Eagles’ offense. Quite a few mock drafts had McCoy landing in Philadelphia. Digging for some old pre-draft scouting reports on McCoy, we found this from The War Room Report: “A team that runs the West Coast offense or a team looking to a running back by committee approach should look to add McCoy’s playmaking abilities.”

Listen – this guy isn’t as fast as Chris Johnson or as powerful as Adrian Peterson. But neither was Brian Westbrook. The point is that McCoy is plenty capable of excelling in this offensive scheme.

So what can we expect from him heading into the 2010 season?
Let’s use his 2009 numbers as a starting point, specifically the games in which he was the lead back with Westbrook on the shelf. In those 8 contests, McCoy compiled 473 yards and 4 TDs on 106 carries. That’s a solid 4.5 yards per carry average. Through the air, he added 22 catches for 163 yards.

Prorate those numbers out over a full 16-game season and you get 946 rushing yards, 326 receiving yards, and 8 scores. Doesn’t seem overly impressive, but that would have been good enough to rank him 15th among RBs last year. And in PPR formats, he would have ranked 13th.
But we’ve projected McCoy to do a bit more in 2010.

He shouldn’t have a problem topping 1,000 yards on the ground. With a full offseason in the Eagles’ conditioning program, McCoy won’t wear down in the home stretch like he did last year. That’ll enable him to maintain a consistent workload of 15 or so carries per game throughout the entire season. And with a 1st-year QB under center in Kevin Kolb, Reid might rely on the running game a bit more than usual.

The offensive line should be a bit better in run-blocking too. According to Pro Football Focus, the Eagles ranked 14th in run-blocking efficiency last season. But that was with a banged-up RG Stacy Andrews and the absence of LG Todd Herremans for 5 games.

Andrews struggled through 2009 after undergoing ACL surgery the previous offseason. He admitted that the knee wasn’t at 100% until midseason. But he declared himself back to full strength in May and is expected to be a full participant in training camp. A healthy Andrews would be a boon to Philly’s run-blocking.

The return of a healthy Todd Herremans will be just as vital. Preseason surgery on a stress fracture above the arch in his foot forced him to miss 5 games and only make 9 starts last year. The injury has continued to bother him this offseason, and the team opted to hold him out of OTAs. He had the foot looked at in early June, and Reid expects the big 6’6, 321-pounder back for training camp. When healthy, Herremans is one of the best run-blocking LGs in football.

But it’s in the passing game where McCoy will really do his damage. McCoy’s 40 catches in limited action last year were ultra-impressive. Need more convincing that he’s an elite pass-catching back? He caught those 40 balls on just 49 targets. That’s a catch rate of 82%, which was good for 12th among RBs with over 30 targets. And his 10.1 yards-after-catch average was 7th among RBs with at least 20 catches.

He may not be at Westbrook’s level yet, but McCoy isn’t far behind when it comes to catching the ball out of the backfield. Westy averaged 4 catches per game in his 8-year career with the Eagles. That equates to 64 catches per season.

We have “Shady” projected for 53 grabs in 2010, but he could easily top 60. In fact, we wouldn’t be surprised if he led all RBs in receptions when all is said and done. This offense will continue to feature plenty of screens and check-downs, especially with an inexperienced QB at the helm.

With a young, explosive offense around him, there’s no way opposing defenses will be able to key in on McCoy. WRs DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin form arguably the most dynamic WR duo in the NFL. Throw in TE Brent Celek, and it’s safe to say McCoy won’t be seeing many 8-men fronts.
The key to the offense will be QB Kevin Kolb. If he can move the chains and force defenses to respect the deep ball, this offense will pick up right where it left off with Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook.

And that’d mean plenty of scoring chances for McCoy.

With a current ADP of 3.10, McCoy represents excellent value. We’d feel comfortable snagging two top-end WRs and then making McCoy your team’s #1 RB.

With plenty of talent, an offensive scheme tailor-made for his skill-set, and a burgeoning young offense around him, this guy is ready to really bust out in 2010.


Honorable Mentions:

Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers

After his much publicized holdout last summer (and fall), the 49ers’ enigmatic first-round pick finally took the field Week 7 -- assuring himself a good, not great, rookie season. But consider this:

Crabtree’s 48-625-2 stat line from 2009 prorated over a 16-game season comes out to 70 catches for 909 yards and 3 scores.

Those numbers would have been 4th-best from a rookie WR since the 2004 season. Now consider the fact that Crabtree was on that heady pace without the luxury of participating in a single minicamp or training camp practice.

Those 4 rookie WRs with better seasons the last few years? Yeah, they all had budding offseasons prior to their rookie success, and none of them were forced to learn the playbook on the fly. Crab also had the misfortune of entering the lineup Week 7 along with his QB Alex Smith. After a scoreless first half in a game against the Texans in Week 7, HC Mike Singletary benched starter Shaun Hill and put Smith into the game. Smith rallied the 49ers with three TDs to bring the score from 21-0 to 24-21. From then on, Smith would remain the starter.

A former first-round pick in his own right, Smith has had his share of ups and downs throughout his six-year career. For starters, the first 3 seasons of his career were met with 3 different OCs. And with those coordinators came new playbooks and an annual QB battle. Smith won’t have to worry about either of those things this year as OC Jimmy Raye returns for his 2nd season with the team. It marks the first time Smith has had the same OC for back-to-back seasons in his pro career.

The Niners also spent their two first-round picks on blue chip offensive linemen OT Anthony Davis and OG Mike Iupati to protect Smith. What the 49ers didn’t do this offseason was acquire a competitor for Smith’s starting QB job, despite the availability of QB Donovan McNabb and a number of high end QB prospects at the draft -- a telling sign of their commitment to Smith. But back to Crabtree.

All signs have pointed to a smooth (and busy) offseason for the sophomore. The 49ers reportedly have him learning all three WR positions to prevent defenses from zeroing in on him. Furthermore, he was the most heavily targeted WR at 49ers OTAs last month, hauling in the first 4 balls thrown at the team’s first practice.

A sign of things to come? We think so. What it boils down to with breakout players, as we read earlier with LeSean McCoy, is opportunity mixed with talent. Crab is oozing with both in 2010.

Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers

All hail Jermichael. Our newly crowned king of TEs heads into the 2010 season with lofty expectations. And rightfully so considering all of the things this freakish talent has going for him. But before we delve into that, let’s reflect upon what he did in 2009.

Despite playing in just 13 games due to a knee injury, the 6’5, 250-pounder posted a full seasons-like line of 55 catches for 676 yards and 5 TDs. And just for emphasis, he continued his torrid play in the playoffs, posting 6 grabs for 159 yards in an opening round loss to Arizona.

His impressive rate of production was made possible by a boiling chemistry with QB Aaron Rodgers. Finley caught 55 of the 71 balls thrown his way – good for a catch rate of nearly 78%. As a comparison, Colts TE Dallas Clark caught (just) 75% of the balls thrown his way, and Chargers TE Antonio Gates fell short of 70%. Sure, Finley was aided by the fact that he played in fewer games (and thus saw less action) than Gates and Clark. But you get the idea – the A-Rodg to Finley combo was -- and should continue to be -- highly efficient. In Week 4, we saw a true bust-out performance from Finley. Against Minnesota, the 23-year-old notched 6 receptions for 128 yards and displayed his after-the-catch abilities on a 62-yard scamper.

His good fortune wouldn’t last long however, as a Week 7 knee sprain put the breaks on a promising season. Finley wouldn’t return until Week 11, but the kid showed why he would remain an integral part of the Packers offense. From that point forward, he averaged 5 catches and 60 yards per game, sprinkling in 4 TDs during that time as well.

Even with big-time weapons in Donald Driver and Greg Jennings, Finley evolved into the feature of the Packers offense. Over the last 7 weeks of the season, he saw double digit targets twice. And on five different occasions he saw 7 or more targets. With Driver on the wrong side of 30 – and on the mend from dual knee surgeries – Finley will remain heavily targeted as an unquestioned top-2 option in the passing game. Simply put, the notion that the Packers have too many weapons to make Finley an elite option is invalid. Finley has showed a tremendous amount of ability thus far in his career, and the Packers aren’t foolish enough to let it go unutilized.

Aiding in Finley’s rise to stardom is the reduced role of incumbent TE Donald Lee. This offseason, the coaching staff laid to rest any speculation that Lee would eat into Finley’s production. "Finley is the starter," HC Mike McCarthy confirmed this offseason. "What's exciting about him, he gets better every week. Jermichael has a chance to be a special player.”

The only other legitimate concern regarding Finley’s fantasy outlook is his health. While he did battle a knee issue for a portion of the ’09 season, indications are that it won’t be an issue moving forward. Yes, he admitted back in mid-May that the injury wasn’t completely healed, but he eventually became a regular participant in OTAs by the time June rolled around. And with over a month and a half until the season starts, we’re not losing sleep over his health.

When all is said and done, we like Finley’s chances of finishing as fantasy football’s top TE in 2010. He’s young, supremely talented, and holds a starting role on a pass-happy offense. Oh, and his QB is Aaron Rodgers. What’s not to love about the guy? If he’s available at the end of round 5 or in round 6, don’t hesitate to snatch up this soon-to-be fantasy superstar.


Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys

Talk about an explosive player! Through 2 NFL seasons, Jones is averaging a stellar 6.5 yards per carry. He’s already racked up 5 runs of 40+ yards on just 146 career carries. That’s a 40-yarder once every 29 rushes. To put that in perspective, Adrian Peterson has done it only once every 76 carries. And the great Chris Johnson –the biggest homerun hitter in our game today – averages a 40-yarder once every 61 carries. So how does a player as electric as Jones rank 68th and 40th at his position in his first 2 NFL seasons? There’ve been a couple culprits.

First, the Cowboys have been hesitant to give him a sizeable workload. Jones has averaged just a smidge over 8 touches per game in his first 2 years. Dallas has used RB Marion Barber to grind down defenses, sprinkling in Jones every couple series. But Felix’s biggest problem has been durability. He missed 10 games in his rookie season with hamstring and toe injuries.

A knee injury kept him out of 2 more games last year. While it’s tough to argue against slapping this guy with the “injury-prone” tag, we will point out that he was healthy for all 3 of his years at the University of Arkansas. And in his final 2 seasons as a Razorback, Jones totaled 319 offensive touches – or 160 per year. We’re expecting him to get at least that with the Cowboys in 2010.

With Marion Barber quickly wearing down, the team has essentially anointed Jones the starter. In particular, the team really wants to get him more involved in the passing game. “Felix is way ahead of where he's been as a receiver,” owner Jerry Jones said. “He's been impressive with how he's running his routes. That has a chance to get ugly if he's really good at running those routes coming out of the backfield.” Jones’ career-high in catches is just 19, but he has a chance to double that total in 2010.

Throw in around 200 carries and you have the makings of a top-15 back. And that’s about where we expect Felix to finish if he can make it through a full 16-game season. He doesn’t qualify as a safe pick, but with an ADP in the 5th-round, we’re willing to roll the dice.

[Bastard Factory]

** Based on what he's seen in the first few days of training camp, Cowboys beat writer Nick Eatman believes RB Marion Barber "is the starting tailback as of right now. And it doesn't really look like it's going to change anytime soon."

This flies in the face of everything we've heard all offseason. Eatman does say that Felix Jones' role will be bigger this season, but maintains that Barber will be the lead back. We'll be watching this situation closely over the next month. While we still think Jones will end up as the primary ball-carrier, we just adjusted our projections for the Cowboys backfield.

** Speaking of Felix Jones… he missed Tuesday's practice with swelling in his knee. It doesn't sound like a big deal -- beat writer Nick Eatman dubbed it a "precautionary measure" -- but any sort of scrape or nick is cause for concern with Jones. We'll continue to watch him closely throughout training camp.

** According to beat writer Brian Stull, Rams RB Steven Jackson is on track to participate in training camp. Steve Jax has been cleared to report, although he’ll need to pass the final physical later this week. Even if he’s near 100% for training camp, we have serious doubts about him holding up over a full 16-game season.

** Chiefs HC Todd Haley has been hearing good things about WR Dwayne Bowe's preparation for training camp. "I know [Bowe has] had a really good last three weeks working out," Haley said. "He's been up with a former player of mine in Larry Fitzgerald.

I've been getting reports back daily for the last couple of weeks and I think, as I said, he had a better offseason than he had last year. I expect him to be one of those young players that takes a step this year."

Bowe was in Haley’s doghouse last summer, so this is nice to hear. His improved commitment -- plus the addition of OC Charlie Weis -- has us thinking that Bowe could really bounce-back in 2010.

** James Walker of ESPN.com believes Browns RBs Montario Hardesty and Jerome Harrison will both see considerable action regardless of who's named the starter. Walker goes on to say he wouldn't be surprised to see the rookie overtake Harrison at some point this season -- something we've been preaching all along.

Continue to target Hardesty over Harrison, as you can get the more promising back a full 2 rounds later.

** Albert Breer of the Boston Globe reports the Patriots chose to place Wes Welker on the training camp PUP list as a precautionary move. Welker is a guy that likes to test the limits, and the Pats don't want him to do too much because of the risk of re-injury.

The shifty slot man is eligible to come off the PUP at anytime, and he remains on track to be in the starting lineup come Week 1.

** The Carolina version of WR Steve Smith has reported to training camp without a cast on his broken left arm. It’s a good sign, but he still has a ways to go in his rehab. Once he starts lifting weights and taking normal reps we’ll feel more comfortable endorsing him. The team still expects him to be ready by Week 1.

** Despite reports that he’d start camp on the PUP list, WR Antonio Bryant will be practicing with the Bengals when they break for camp on Thursday.

The Bengals apparently were satisfied with a checkup on Bryant's problematic knee. Still, he'll be a limited participant in camp moving forward. But Bryant is now ineligible for the regular season PUP, so QB Carson Palmer's impressive trio of weapons should be in place to begin 2010.

** We’ve heard from multiple sources that the Rams are expected to sign rookie QB Sam Bradford sometime within the next couple days. Rookies will report to Rams camp today, but veterans won’t arrive until Friday.

If Bradford is signed, sealed, and delivered by then, he’ll have an excellent shot to be under center Week 1.

** Redskins DT Albert Haynesworth is expected to report to camp early in an effort to “reach out” to new HC Mike Shanahan, according to 980 ESPN’s Chris Russell. Russell also noted that Haynesworth has lost over 40 pounds and is “definitely in good shape.”

It appears as if the dust has finally settled around Haynesworth’s complaints and he’s ready to play football. If he can return to his form of two seasons ago, the ‘Skins defense will get a major boost.

** Bengals OC Bob Bratkowski said he's been pleased with the progress rookie WR Jordan Shipley has made since being drafted back in April.

Shipley has been in the news this offseason for all the right reasons. And had the Bengals not signed T.O., he might have got a chance to shine given Antonio Bryant's knee problems. But at least for this season, Shipley is no more than a dynasty league stash.

** Bills OLB Aaron Schobel said he's more open to returning to the team now than he was earlier in the offseason. "I would say I'm leaning more towards doing it (playing) than I was a month ago," Schobel said on Tuesday. "At this point I'm thinking about it.” Schobel has been thinking about it for a while, but he'll need to get into camp soon to pick up the team's new 3-4 scheme.

Thanks,
Jared Smola
DraftSharks.com

[Bastard Factory]

Let's do this...

Here's the new league information.

The League ID# is... 720586

Unique League name... bastardfactory2010

Password is... bastard

DRAFT TIME IS... Wed Sep 8, 7:00 pm PDT

3 DAYS Left... if you know how to play, it's FREE!!

http://football.fantasysports.yahoo....mEZf&.scrumb=0

[Mamacita]

Originally Posted by Bastard Factory

Fantasy Football - 2010

The League ID# is... 720586

Unique League name... bastardfactory2010

Password is... bastard

DRAFT TIME IS... Wed Sep 8, 7:00 pm PDT

3 DAYS Left... if you know how to play, it's FREE!!

http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/register/joinprivateleague_league_select?.scrumb=/v2oZu6mEZf&.scrumb=0

Aaron Rodgers Over Drew Brees?

Chris Johnson Over Adrian Peterson?

Who is this year's Ray Rice?

Who Is This Years Miles Austin?

Roddy White vs. DeSean Jackson

Where to draft Randy Moss?

When is it time to draft WR-WR?

Do you prefer PPR Leagues or Not?

Who are the guys you are Targeting?

Who are your "sleepers" for 2010?

Ain't gonna make it BF. I'll be at work then.

You know better. What the fuck were you thinking?

[Bastard Factory]

Yeah, I'll never learn.

I moved the draft later into the evening Wednesday to 7 pm PDT

Plan B... We keep filling it and draft this Saturday. Whoever drafts the Vikings/Saints players "should" get those points they'll earn Thursdays kickoff to the season.

Plan C... Wait for 2011.

[gunzablazin]

Drafting on Saturday is a Fantasy Football no-no...I say draft Wednesday whether Mama likes it or not...He's full of shit anyway...Spanging for change in front of Walgreens isn't considered a job...I'm sure his partner Hobo Joe will reschedule him...

[CorsetKat]

I will join if we can get at least 10 Bastards to join.

I should be able to draft from my phone on the plane.

[Mamacita]

Originally Posted by CorsetKat

I will join if we can get at least 10 Bastards to join.

I should be able to draft from my phone on the plane.

Where ya goin gurl?

[CorsetKat]

Colorado.

[Mamacita]

Originally Posted by gunzablazin

Drafting on Saturday is a Fantasy Football no-no...I say draft Wednesday whether Mama likes it or not...He's full of shit anyway...Spanging for change in front of Walgreens isn't considered a job...I'm sure his partner Hobo Joe will reschedule him...

I don't remember asking for yer opinion or even giving you permission to speak.

Now go back in yer kennel...

Mutt...

[gunzablazin]

there was a problem
this league is not registered

WTF?...

I already signed up and now the league doesn't exist?

[Bastard Factory]

Originally Posted by gunzablazin

there was a problem
this league is not registered

WTF?...

I already signed up and now the league doesn't exist?

Yeah that blows, I did'nt fill. Since it only had (3) members, the league was negated @ 6:30 PCT. It was public to yahoo too and of course the members here.

[Mamacita]

Originally Posted by CorsetKat

Colorado.

You visiting yer Dad?

Tell him I said hi!